Tory support stays stagnant as NDP surges in Conservative st

[styky]

Tory support stays stagnant as NDP surges in Conservative strongholds: poll

The Canadian Press May 10, 2012 – 7:37 AM ET | Last Updated: May 10, 2012 8:03 AM ET
OTTAWA — A new poll suggests the New Democrats are widening their support across the country and gaining unprecedented favour in historically Conservative regions.

The Canadian Press Harris Decima survey indicates that the NDP have 34% of popular support, compared to 30% for the Conservatives.

With a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, support for the two parties could be equally split.

Still, the poll indicates that the New Democrats have become competitive in traditional Tory areas.

Among rural Canadians, the poll suggests the New Democrats have 31% support, compared to 35% for the Tories.

The NDP appear to have the support of 36% of urban and suburban men, a number that has risen steadily since February.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives are seeing their support in that demographic appear to hover around 29%, down from close to 40% four months ago.

As well, the New Democrats appear to have supplanted the Liberals as the natural party among women, said Allan Gregg, chairman of Harris Decima.

“Remember this is a party that a decade ago, half the electorate said they would ”never“ vote for,” he said.

“To broaden their base as we see in these data is quite remarkable.”

Overall, the Liberals continue to hold steady at 20% support, the poll suggests.

Just over 2,000 Canadians were polled for the survey in the last week of April and first week of May.

The period marked ongoing controversy of the price tag for fighter jets as well as the introduction of the Conservatives’ controversial omnibus budget implementation bill.

But it also saw the anniversary of the 2011 federal election which returned the Conservatives with their majority government.

The election resulted in the NDP surge into Opposition status thanks to a record number of MPs being elected in Quebec.....................http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/05/10 ... olds-poll/

[Angleland]

Somebody else can panic. I'm not.

[Thunderstick]

Personally, I'd like to take each and every one of the bastard politicians and hang them from bridges, trees and lamp standards to get the point across that we are tired of the bullshit they keep shovelling. No accountability, no reprocussions, no liability for all the mismanagement over the years of running this once good country into the ground.
To me, there are no decent politicians worthy of my vote. Simply depressing.

[tango37]

Another POS poll that has zero value 3 years before an election. Why do they insist on publishing this crapola? The pinkos will be in a state of ecstasy over this but rest assured the NDP will self-destruct before too long. They're taking their cues from Blair's New Labour electoral success in Britain and want to appear to be moving towards the centre in order to appeal to mainstream voters. But they're the same old tax and spend socialists. It's putting lipstick on a swine.

[WestViking]

The Canadian Press Harris Decima survey indicates that the NDP have 34% of popular support, compared to 30% for the Conservatives.

As well, the New Democrats appear to have supplanted the Liberals as the natural party among women, said Allan Gregg, chairman of Harris Decima. “Remember this is a party that a decade ago, half the electorate said they would ”never“ vote for,” he said.

Looks like no change, Allan - over 50% of electors still don't support the NDP.

[Hodgson]

Remember....polls are "science".

That's why Danielle Smith won the Alberta election with 50 out of 87 seats back in April.

It's also why Harper just can never quite attain a majority. Some day maybe...with a different leader perhaps...

[styky]

Remember....polls are "science".

That's why Danielle Smith won the Alberta election with 50 out of 87 seats back in April.

It's also why Harper just can never quite attain a majority. Some day maybe...with a different leader perhaps...

What would you call what he has now then?

[Hodgson]

Sarcasm.

The pollsters said Harper wasn't going to win a majority. He was supposed to fall short....remember?
I do.

[smallLliberal]

Remember....polls are "science".

That's why Danielle Smith won the Alberta election with 50 out of 87 seats back in April.

It's also why Harper just can never quite attain a majority. Some day maybe...with a different leader perhaps...

The problem with some of the polls conducted in 2012 ... they only poll people with landlines. So most people under 30 will never be polled because they are a cell phone only generation.

Which makes perfect sense with the Alberta polls. They only got to talk to older people with landlines. Older folks tend to be the most conservative.

The only way around this problem is taking huge samples and factoring peoples ages.

[Hodgson]

Stephen Carter (campaign manager for the PC's) said that polling companies need to call 18,000 people in order to get a sample of 1,000 voters.

Even without the cell phone thing the polling metrics are terrible.

Secondly, people REACT to the polls. When it's time to vote people might switch.

Thirdly, predicting voters votes is like predicting the weather. Weird stuff happens and they don't know why.

Fourthly, the polling recently has just been garbage and thus, should not be taken seriously.

[Faramir]

Another POS poll that has zero value 3 years before an election. Why do they insist on publishing this crapola? The pinkos will be in a state of ecstasy over this but rest assured the NDP will self-destruct before too long. They're taking their cues from Blair's New Labour electoral success in Britain and want to appear to be moving towards the centre in order to appeal to mainstream voters. But they're the same old tax and spend socialists. It's putting lipstick on a swine.

Precisely. Polls these days are more than worthless. We found that out in the AB election

[ShadowCat]

Personally, I'd like to take each and every one of the bastard politicians and hang them from bridges, trees and lamp standards to get the point across that we are tired of the bullshit they keep shovelling. No accountability, no reprocussions, no liability for all the mismanagement over the years of running this once good country into the ground.
To me, there are no decent politicians worthy of my vote. Simply depressing.

Man you sure have got that right-
Especially the 'No accountability, no reprocussions, no liability' part-
That has been my main beef about politicians at any level-
Well said

[Jean]

It's not hard for me to believe these results. It's only a gain of 4% for the NDP compared to their election result during Mulcair's honeymoon as new leader plus it's easy to say you're not going to renew your confidence in the governement when the election is so far away still.

If we were 1 month away from the election than Harper would have cause to be worried but so many things can happen until 2015. The NDP could return to 3rd party status or win a majority, both are plausible to me.

Mulclair will easilly be the toughest oposition Harper has ever faced but considering the rather poor quality of his previous opponents, that's not saying much.

[styky]

John Ivison: The NDP shouldn’t get hasty in assuming it can defeat Harper

John Ivison May 15, 2012 – 8:50 PM ET
Memo to the NDP: rediscover use of the conditional tense.

As the party’s polling numbers have risen above those of the Conservatives in recent weeks, so has the number of New Democrats who talk with absolute certainty about “when we form government.”

Such braggadocio reflects the fact that two-thirds of the MPs — and many of their staff — weren’t on Parliament Hill the last time an opposition leader enjoyed a brief honeymoon and passed the Conservatives in the polls.

Back in spring 2009, Michael Ignatieff saw his Liberal Party take a slender lead in public opinion. It was an occasion for much rejoicing among the Grits, who thought they would soon reclaim what they regarded as their natural birthright. Party memberships were up, donations on the rise, caucus discipline restored and the wars of past years were behind them........................http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/201 ... at-harper/

[Hodgson]

The NDP will never form government.
Once the Liberals have a real leader in place, they will surge in the polls too.
By the time an election rolls around, the NDP 'orange crush' will be a thing of the past.